Market Analysis for November, 2017

At the time of writing, there is no indication that the market will recover to anything that compares with the first four months of this year.

The sales-to-listings ratio remains well below the typical range of 50-55%, having picked up a bit to 46%, indicating we’re still in a buyer’s market.

Right now there are still about 1700 homes listed for sale, which is enough to keep the market from falling into a shortage that would push prices back up.

Furthermore, although many sellers don’t want to admit that the crazy times are at an end, and are still asking high prices, recent price reductions are an undeniable sign.

As of this writing, prices continue to drop slowly. Detached homes have fallen from $838,000 to $832,000 average since last month. Semi-detached homes have dropped from $647,000 to $642,000. Condo apartments have remained at the same average price.

The fall market historically increases activity from the start of September to the middle or end of November. Since we’re already into November and prices are still slowly dropping, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any major changes in the market before the end of the year. The real test will come in January or February of 2018, when the spring market begins.

Meanwhile, a number of local “flip” attempts have backfired. For example, a home was bought in March 2017 for $602,000, renovated, and then listed for $750,000 in July—but now reduced to $649,000.

Another example: bought in February 2017 for $572,000, renovated, and listed in June for $789,000—now reduced to $699,000.

Final example: bought in August 2016 for $555,000, renovated, and listed in April 2017 for $779,777—now reduced to only $599,900.

These are real listings on the market today and show how much the slowdown has reined in the top end of prices.

For anyone wanting to down-size, this is still an excellent time to make some money doing so.

Want to know more about the state of the market? Just ask me, I'll be happy to help.

--Peter

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